Around the world, discussions about a technological breakthrough are becoming increasingly common, with artificial intelligence (AI), robots, and drones expected to take over many everyday tasks. Parcel delivery is no exception. However, both Lithuanian and global data, as well as real-world experience, show that parcel lockers are not only here to stay in the foreseeable future but will continue to be one of the primary methods for collecting parcels. Why?
According to Justas Januškevičius, Head of Sales for the Baltics at SmartPosti, one of the largest parcel delivery networks in the Baltics and part of Posti Group, robots and drones can complement the parcel delivery chain, but at least in the near future, they will remain niche solutions. Parcel lockers have already become the standard for parcel delivery, with their importance confirmed by both consumer habits and ongoing market investments in infrastructure.
According to data from the Communications Regulatory Authority (RRT), parcel lockers remain the most popular parcel collection channel in Lithuania. In 2025, more than 65% of all parcels were collected from parcel lockers.
As Januškevičius points out, the parcel locker network continues to expand. RRT data show that Lithuania had 2,194 parcel lockers at the end of 2025, up from 2,070 in 2024. Meanwhile, postal service providers' investments increased by nearly 36% year-on-year, reaching €10.7 million.
"This shows that the market is investing not in a short-term solution, but in long-term logistics infrastructure. Parcel lockers are no longer just an alternative—they have become an integral part of the urban logistics ecosystem, enabling businesses to organise deliveries more efficiently while giving consumers greater flexibility in receiving and sending parcels according to their individual needs," says Januškevičius.
How Technology Is Transforming Parcel Delivery
According to the SmartPosti representative, technological progress does not necessarily mean that robots or drones will replace conventional parcel delivery. On the contrary, it can strengthen the solutions that already exist.
For example, SmartPosti's Logistics Trends Report 2026 highlights that AI can analyse millions of data points in real time, including delivery times, costs, emissions, energy consumption, and customer preferences. This enables more accurate route planning, parcel flow management, and parcel locker capacity optimisation, ensuring that parcels are directed to the locations most convenient for customers.
Meanwhile, robotisation in the logistics sector is still far from widespread. A study conducted across the Baltic countries, Finland, and Sweden found that only around 3–5% of companies currently use robots. Some 86% of respondents have no plans to introduce them, while 14% intend to do so within the next three to five years. Interest is highest in Lithuania, where 19% of companies plan to implement robots, followed by Sweden (16%), Finland (15%), Latvia (9%), and Estonia (8%).
However, this does not necessarily mean parcels will soon be delivered by drones or robots. Today, robots are already used in warehouses and sorting centres. For smaller businesses employing between two and ten people, however, such investments remain significantly more challenging—62% have no plans to introduce robots at all.
Drone Deliveries: Not as Simple as They Seem
According to SmartPosti's Head of Sales for the Baltics, while drones are no longer a novelty and may appear ready for large-scale parcel deliveries, the reality is far more complex. In 2025, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) emphasised that widespread drone delivery requires additional infrastructure and clear regulatory frameworks governing where drones may fly and land, as well as how noise, safety, and liability should be managed.
"Drone delivery is not simply a matter of taking off and flying to the destination. Even in the United States, where such projects are advancing rapidly, operators need certification, permits, public communication, and clearly defined operating zones. In other words, drones are not a straightforward alternative to traditional couriers," Januškevičius explains.
He adds that Lithuania also has extensive restrictions governing drone operations. Before every flight, operators must verify whether flying is permitted in the chosen location, whether additional authorisations are required, and whether the area is subject to restrictions—common around airports, military facilities, hospitals, city centres, residential areas, public events, and other sensitive locations.
Weather conditions, operating range, and payload capacity are additional major limitations.
"Even the most advanced drones currently used for parcel deliveries abroad face technological constraints. For example, Amazon Prime Air's MK30 drone has an operating range of around 12 kilometres, while the weight of a parcel generally cannot exceed 2.3 kilograms. For this reason, drone delivery cannot currently match parcel lockers in terms of reliability and consistency. Parcel lockers are unaffected by adverse weather or limited operating range, allowing them to provide dependable parcel collection and shipping services," the SmartPosti representative emphasises.
Delivery Robots: An Innovative Concept, but Not Suitable Everywhere
A similar situation applies to autonomous delivery robots. According to Januškevičius, their performance depends heavily on the surrounding environment, including pavement width and condition, kerbs, gradients, pedestrian traffic, charging infrastructure, and weather.
"If a pavement is narrow, uneven, or obstructed by poles or other obstacles, it becomes much more difficult for a robot to navigate. It must safely cross roads, give way to pedestrians, respond to changing pedestrian flows, and stop whenever necessary. As a result, delivery delays may occur not because of the robot itself, but because of the environment in which it operates," he explains.
He adds that the expansion of delivery robots also requires dedicated regulation and a consistent operational framework. For example, in Washington, D.C., delivery robots are permitted to operate only on pavements, pedestrian crossings, and alleyways. They must always give way to pedestrians, cannot exceed speeds of approximately 16 km/h, and in the event of a malfunction, operators are required to repair or remove the robot from public spaces promptly.
"Research published in 2025 on pavement-based delivery robots indicates that their travel times can be more difficult to predict. As a result, robots may become a valuable addition to parcel delivery services, but they are unlikely to replace parcel locker networks in the foreseeable future. As with drones, their capabilities are limited by operating speed, service area, and payload capacity, meaning they can only deliver parcels that meet specific technical requirements," Januškevičius concludes.
The Market Continues to Choose Reliable Solutions
Although the market is seeing a growing number of innovative delivery methods, such as drones and robots, their practical application remains constrained by technical and environmental factors. Parcel lockers, meanwhile, stand out for their scale, accessibility, and reliability, ensuring that they will remain a cornerstone of parcel delivery infrastructure in the years ahead.
"Drones and robots may look like the future, but parcel lockers are the future that already works today. They don't require perfect weather, special airspace permits, flawless pavements, or recipients to be at home. A parcel locker network allows multiple parcels to be delivered in a single stop, reduces the need for repeated courier visits, and gives customers the freedom to collect their parcels whenever it suits them," says SmartPosti's Head of Sales for the Baltics, Justas Januškevičius.